Open Source » Blog Archive » Dan Ariely: Confronting Irrationality

Open Source » Blog Archive » Dan Ariely: Confronting Irrationality

Here’s a good talk on radio open source (an island of interestingness in a vast sea of trying to make a routine election sound like an earth-shaking event – it’s not, people!!!) Ariely talks about how we should take into account limits of human rationality when deciding public policy and dealing with disputes. This is a pretty obvious idea, yet no one seems to be willing to accept it. Why? Is it creepy to think of our brains as somehow flawed? His analogy of how we make mittens for hands prone to cold to how we should adjust policy to how brains really work (not outmoded models about how they work) is quite apt.

This science of studying human irrationality (psychology, heh), combined with recent advances in game theory, represent a new frontier in bringing about positive social change. Social philosophies are no longer bounded to primitive psychology and sociology that is just-almost-right-but-not-quite. Marx’s logic was quite sound, but he missed important points about human nature. Now that we are understanding more and more where people make solid decisions and where they don’t, and we have models for how games are played rationally with competing interests, we can develop theories of history that are for once accurate! We can harness the same forces that make Americans obese and put them to positive use (like making Americans thin).

The flip side is that these sciences also represent new frontiers in controlling people. It’s no secret that businesses use consumer irrationality to derive profit (supersize for 50 cents.. you don’t really want all that extra food and yet…) and missionaries utilize the fact that a vast distance between carrot and stick convinces absolutely, even without a shred of evidence for the carrot nor the stick (there I go knocking on missionaries again. I’m on a roll!) and so on… People are pretty immune to these things once the trick is discovered, but I can’t help but fear for what will happen when the tyrannical entities of the world (like the “People’s” Republic of China) become all the more sophisticated…

What Do You Think of This Doctrine?

I humbly propose this doctrine for everyone, religious or not, to follow:

No physical misdeed can have a metaphysical justification

First, the argument:

The certitude of a premise is of course logically significant. Therefore, the unknowability of a divine source of morality is ethically significant. This is fairly obvious, yet too many individuals and organizations do not act upon it. MostMany religious systems involve morality and a basis for that morality that is unknowable. Now, this doctrine I have here is insufficient because in reality these myths are invented post ex-facto and therefore the true origins of the morals must be sufficiently researched. However, this snappy phrase is a good starting point to suggest a wide range of ideas… Also, it may be used if one is to give religious systems the benefit of the doubt that the supernatural they invoke is the source of the morality, if it is a fact.

Anyway, this has always been one of my primary arguments against missionaries. They are doing something that would be beneficial if their dogma was correct, but neutral (best case scenario) to terrible if their premise is wrong. Many religious organizations might have come to this realization themselves… See this interfaith conference on the issue. It would just be awesome if those Mormon missionaries in Japan stopped preaching Mormonism and started preaching the gospel of “eat brown rice! it’ll cure your constipation.”

This is the end of “God and Morality Week”, a straight-jacket premise that I got bored with the second day. Tomorrow’s post will be another idea I have that just so happens to be a good argument against missionaries. How is that for a segue?

The Contradictions of the “Ordered Universe” Argument for God

…at least if a Christian makes them:

Dinesh D’Souza (and many others before him) makes a very clever argument for the existence of a God – that out of all the possible universes that could have existed, one must have been created that is suitable for life. He doesn’t shoot himself in the foot like bible literalists by suggesting that science is a vast conspiracy, but rather admits the validity of, e.g., the big bang theory, continental drift, biological evolution, etc. He then points out (correctly, last I heard) that if certain universal constants were only slightly off, the universe would be unsuitable for life, the first sparks would have never occurred and evolution simply would have been rendered impossible. Clever, but flawed as a defense of Christianity.

Dinesh is known for saying “God could have made an arbitrary universe or he could have made an ordered universe” (paraphrasing), and goes on to attack the silly notion of each happening being the direct will of God. We can falsify the idea of an arbitrary universe quite easily. The fact that we can predict things using mathematics and theorems shows that the universe acts based on certain principals. It shows that if there is a creator God (s)he adamantly refuses to violate his/her own rules. The problem is Christianity is a belief in an arbitrary universe, since a miracle is by definition a violation of the laws of nature, as is immaculate conception, resurrection, etc.

One could respond to this by suggesting that the universe is mostly ordered and sometimes God intervenes. Certainly, if I were God, I’d put the universe on autopilot and intervene when things go wrong (like I do with my pond, my garden, etc.), but that’s because I’m not perfect and I could have made big mistakes in making the world. However, an even partially arbitrary universe is an arbitrary universe. Where we see apparent violations of the laws of nature, it is always where our understanding is incomplete and never correlates with prayer nor piety. Never has there been a verifiable instance of a prayer resulting in something that violates the laws of physics. To use an argument Shermer likes to use, people may pray to recover from cancer (something that might happen anyway), but people don’t pray to grow a leg when their leg gets blown away. Heh, clever.

So, in conclusion, I suppose your faith in God might increase from the ordered universe argument if you are a deist or a naturalistic pantheist – in other words, your God is 100% non-interventionist; that is really a separate and weird argument that I won’t bother getting into right now (it doesn’t deal with morality). But if you are a Christian, it should severely challenge your idea of Jesus as an avatar of God (or something like that), rather than merely a philosopher and primary founder of Christianity.

The Problem of Any Supernatural Justification For Morality

With this post, I begin “God & Morality Week” at Thomas J. Webb’s Ecology Blog! From today until next Monday, we will be exploring the nature of morality with respect to the unknowable supernatural. Though the vocabulary I use may lead one to believe I am picking on Christianity, please remember that when I say “God” I simply mean any benevolent, in-power (possibly all-powerful) benevolent force(s), be it monotheistic, polytheistic or animistic that is supposed to be the source of mankind’s, or at least a people’s morality. These series of arguments are not meant to be an attack on any one religion or on religiosity in general, but instead are meant to attack what are some really silly moral positions that astonishingly still haven’t gone extinct, particularly the absurd notion that one cannot have morality without God.

Wait, this is supposed to be an environmentalism blog or something, right? Well, I just have some ideas that have been swimming in my head since starting to read “Political & Theological Treatise” by Spinoza and watching a few biographies on prominent existentialists. Also, I’m building up to something that does deal with ecosophy.

Okay, so now for today’s:

In a debate about morality, one side (side A) may resort to theological justification. The argument goes something like God says it is good, therefore it is good. The implication is that morals come from God, since God lay them out along with physical laws, for humans to obey. If a book is involved, then one possible interpretation of the book is used to justify the moral position. If the opponent (side B) points out that the book in question could be interpreted differently in such a way that an immoral act is not only justified, but mandated, then side A has a shocking rebuttal – “that couldn’t be, because God is good.”

Think about the meaning of this reply for a second. Isn’t good, good simply because God deemed it so? To suggest otherwise is to admit that morality may come from a different place (making morality without God perfectly possible), perhaps from self-evident facts? If one has faith that God is good and yet can determine right from wrong within the non-scriptural frameworks we use, then isn’t the best way to find out what God wants of humanity to continue to seek under that framework? In other words, when these two people are arguing a moral point, isn’t the one who is right automatically the one who is more pious to God, regardless of what any book says? If the scripture mandates the incomprehensible, then sooner deem the scripture wrong (or misunderstood) than God bad, correct?

Looking at this, we are left with two alternatives – either what we think is right in our society is wrong (so, slavery is okay, for example) or that we can determine what is right by reason alone, without involving the even more impossible task (if such exists) of reading God’s mind.

So, in conclusion, you cannot justify a morality on theological grounds UNLESS you are to believe simultaneously that humans do not have the intellectual expertise to discover what is good and evil AND that those same faulty humans are miraculously able to read God’s mind and flawlessly translate and transliterate holy texts when a false prophet and a true prophet are impossible to distinguish (since anyone can do magic tricks).

Take that, raw foodists!

Discovery News : Discovery Channel : Great Apes Prefer Food Well-Done

This study potentially pushes back our earliest we started eating cooked food to just after we first began to control fire. The reasoning is that since our ape relatives appear to prefer the taste of many things cooked over raw (they tried different fruits, vegetables and meats, these are chimps, who are omnivorous), we didn’t have to evolutionarily acquire a taste for it over time. A tendency would have already existed, since cooking makes many foods softer and sweeter, both things meaning more calorie efficient.

I’m a big fan of technology, and as a strict vegetarian myself, I believe I owe much to two technologies developed during prehistoric times – grain and cooking. What technologies will humanity come up with to feed ourselves for the next million years? I hope to be part of the answer to that question.

日本人、教えて!

日本に居た時、自転車を乗っているカープルを見た。女の子は後ろに立っていた。めっちゃ可愛かった!俺は自分の自転車もそれが出来るようにしたい!

この写真みたいだった。。。

ペッグでしょ?安全かな?ほしいよ。日本に、アクセサリーを買える?どこ?

My Cyclopean, Fire-Breathing, Cider-Swilling Llama Friend

Once upon a time I took groats to my groat-loving llama friend
And often I mistook shadows for my child-saving llama friend
To one such shade I talked and I, by my local school teacher, stalked
“So you took our oats, oaf”, pointed to rotting pile, angrily, quoth
Only a fool could think! my humble offer does the llama eat!
For groats and oats are food fit only for horse and man and meals, crude
No, my llama friend be with or without my sweetened gift of feed

Oh, the days I do miss he’d make a bully crawl, or a girl kiss
It cost only a call to wish, to will, to watch the teacher fall
But one meal was not sweet not cabbage, nor beans, but a loathsome beet
I wished as I might call but none unsweet, not even beets, would fall
Only a fool could think! a llama greets me from the kitchen sink!
For far and forgot be for him as near as cider and glass be
Yes, my llama friend be though nary a place you can hope to see

Analogy Machine Example

Start with Categories, end with Nuanced Vision

General Description:

In a vacuum of knowledge about the underlying causes of phenomena one sees, the first thing one can do to understand the phenomenon is to categorize the phenomena themselves. When a scientist groups phenomenon into categories, he may be leading himself astray – the categories may or may not have anything to do with the underlying causes. Nonetheless, the sharper and more precise the categories, the closer they may become to reflecting causes.

When these categories are in error, they are discarded outright when a sharper view of the science emerges. When these categories have merit, they still tend to take the sideline when they lose their importance. In either case, they mysteriously still get taught in elementary school.

Example:

Taxonomy (categorization of the phenomenon of biodiversity) vs. phylogeny (the evolutionary origins of biodiversity). Biologists in near pre-evolutionary times were already quite good at categorizing species based on their physiology. By the time Darwin’s On the Origin of the Species was published, they have long since discarded classification systems such as flying, land, sea or useful, dangerous, harmless or other such nonsense in favor of Linnaean Taxonomy, which reflected the best of their knowledge of the day.

Some of Linnaeus’ categories did represent true evolutionary relationships. This is because he was so careful to categorize based on morphological similarities. Some things were, of course, wrong, too. Cases of convergent evolution naturally created false positives for category matches. Paleontology did much to correct the taxonomy since Linnaeus’ time, and molecular data, more still. Now, the system itself still suffers from not correctly reflecting the underlying causes of biodiversity – there are still many paraphyletic clades (unless you want to deem birds reptiles, for example). And, the classifications highlight the sections of biodiversity we were most familiar with before the invention of the microscope, and that is but a tiny representation of one of the major clades!

So, even though Linnaean taxonomy is at the verge of being discarded outright for strict cladistics, the taxonomy itself proved quite useful in telling us where to look. Why do mammals all have such similar limbs? Such similar embryology? These questions lead to the biology we have today, and a frustrated purist who would reject early attempts at classification as simply imposing a librarian’s order on a chaotic universe would have done nothing to help a fledgling science. Oh, and the “kingdoms” are quite easy for school children to grasp.

Some More Examples:

  • Schizophrenias are still numerous (you may recognize some – paranoid, disorganized, delusional, hey, that sounds like half of my friends! just kidding, friends!), and there’s no agreement what the types are, if there really are types, or if the different types even represent the same disease. Surely the most difficult thing for the human mind to grasp is the human mind.
  • Speaking of phylogeny and genes, a good start for understanding physical anthropology was races. When the categorization was based on skull shape, not other things like skin color, it was closest to representing human history, since skull characteristics are among the least affected by natural selection. Some of the categorizations back in the 1800s were close to right, but molecular data has relegated “race” to a very minor role, if any, in describing populations.
  • Quantum theory describes a good number of quantum particles. We only know how these particles act. It very well could be that none of these exist as distinct types of particles, as some attempts at quantum field theory might suggest.

Application:

An ambitious scientist would be half-right be be suspicious of a young science’s obsession with categorization. But he should be cautiously optimistic about more and more detailed classification (read: observation) while striving for something that points to a fundamental cause. Oh, but scientists already know about all this. What can you, the non-scientist glean from this? One day, you are telling your friend over a drink “there are X types of people in this world…” and proceeding to bitch about your X, and the next, you develop a Mark Twain-esque understanding of human nature.

Be satisfied with solid observation at first, and even indulge yourself with your atavistic desire to categorize if you must. But from there, learn the underlying causes, the essential nature of things, the ways in which the categories are an illusion, or at least but a small puzzle piece.

Technology and Categories

This morning, the dishwasher pissed me off. For the quadrillionth time, a spoon’s handle fell through one of the .5cm2 squares put in the silverware basket so water (and dirt) could move freely about. Generally, dirt is smaller and dishes are larger, but the mesh couldn’t eliminate the possibility of utensil handles falling through without also trapping larger chunks, “cleaning” utensils in a sort of sanitized crap-pool.

The mind thinks in categories, or discreet entities. The world exists as no such thing, and we make technology to sort out the difference – to find a physical existence of our social categories. We don’t want the unclean on our silverware. Unclean is generally small pieces. We don’t want mosquitoes in our ponds – critters that need still water with no oil slick on the surface. Oh, but dragonflies are so nifty. Turnips are edible and easy to grow – keep ‘em. Dandelions are edible and easy to grow – kill it! (seriously, why?) Only a robot with my brain can truly know what I want growing in my garden.

Here is one problem of the modern world – children grow up believing categories have a physical existence that do not because technology is advanced enough to sort it out most of the time. Only when children are exposed to wild nature, if just for short spans of time (like camping), can their minds truly grow.

クリスマスの歴史

世界にアメリカの文化のクリスマス祝日が有名です。けど、人があんまり歴史のことが分かりません。けど、本当に面白いですよ!

クリスマスの本来の意味はイエスの誕生日じゃありませんでした。本当にだれもイエスの誕生日がいつだったか知りません。けど、ほかの昔の宗教のミトラ教のミトラの誕生日は12月の25日でした。400年ぐらい、キリスト教の教会が初めてクリスマスの式を出ていました。ミトラ教を真似ましたね!

後は北のヨーロッパがキリスト教化されていた時、人々がとにかくペーガンの祝日のユールを祝ってた。神父とかが怒ったけど、止められなかった。だから、その祝日をイエス化しました。だから、クリスマスは今でも、いろんなヨーロッパのペーガンのものがあります。 Continue reading

Merry Christmas! (2 bulletins I posted on MySpace)

Have your sacrifice to Freyr (Christmas Ham), make love-play under the sperm-dew plant (Mistletoe, this one’s kinda a stretch), light your piece of Yggdrasil (Great Ashen Fagot, only slightly a stretch), leave gifts for Odin and his 8-legged horse, slepnir (Santa Claus, yes, really), and enjoy your seasonal merrymaking, you filthy, filthy heathens.

Further Reading:
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1937JRASC..31..347C
http://www.gutenberg.org/etext/598
http://books.google.com/books?id=1XRjAyL8LogC&printsec=frontcover


This is the season (not the time of the year, you Northern Hemisphere-centric jerks!) where families get together to relax, to be comfortable, and to feast. In Australia, where Christmas lands in Summer, they celebrate “Yulefest” in Winter. Christmas existed before any Jesus was shoehorned in (the Christian Christmas only dates back to the 4th century or so) and persists without. The true meaning of Christmas isn’t supernatural. Celebrations for Winter Solstice or other Winter holidays around the world follow the same basic pattern of family holiday in the Winter. There are countless differences with regard to the supernatural and, interesting though they may be, and as difficult as it would be to shut me up about them, they aren’t important here.

What matters is Winter is a time of famine and a time of cold. Just when you need more calories to stay warm, there’s less food available. You might hibernate, like the bears in the forest near where I live or my pet, ugh, “Mediterranean” Tortoise. But like many Animals, we humans stay awake, but lower our energy levels to conserve resources (probably.. what am I, a doctor?)

Except the famine and cold thing doesn’t matter so much, at least not to anyone who’s able to read this. If you can afford a computer, you’ll survive through the winter, even if you run around and eat less. But psychologically, we all still need at least some time off, even if physiologically we can handle year-round stress. Ugh, the fact that I’m working this week is notwithstanding; I invoke the “do as I say, not as I do” doctrine.

So, the true meaning of Christmas is family/socializing, eating, and being very lazy. Isn’t what you’re doing or really wanting to do right now in some way revolving around these three things? So now that you’re done standing in long lines getting people things they’ll never use or appreciate you for, how ’bout having some whiskey and a butt-load of food and bullshit about times past?